Cruisin along

Things are just cruising along on the poker front. Pokerstars has been looking out for me this week, not dealing out their usual barrage of bad beats. I'm hoping to move up to NL200 on the 1^st November. It's been a long time coming, and things are starting to get a bit boring hanging around at NL100 for so long. I could easily move up to the NL200 games tomorrow if I wanted, but I want to be at the top of my game and feeling 100% confident.

I've been doing a lot of poker reading lately. I realize that if I want to play above the NL200 level then my game will need to evolve. I find the playing fairly straight forward ABC poker is the easiest way to make money up to NL200. Beyond that I have a feeling that I'll have to start mixing it up a lot more. The book I have just started reading is "Master the mental game" by Alan Schoonmaker. I've only just started reading it, but so far very interesting, I'll give a full report of it when finished.

I'm also looking to sign up to cardrunners.com training site before the end of the month. The thing I am learning about poker is that unless you are constantly improving and moving up levels, it can start to become a very boring pastime, and motivation becomes a real problem. As long as my game is evolving and I am getting better and learning, then I really enjoy the challenge.

Today' Topic: Simplifying pot odds:

Most people reading this blog are probably already aware of the concept and use of accurately calculating pot odds. But it is such a vital part of being a profitable poker player that I thought I would just refresh the basics.

By definition, calculating pot odds are something that you do when deciding whether or not to call a bet. You compare the chances of the next card completing your hand to the # of bets in the pot. If the chances of hitting your hand are more than (or equal to) the number of bets in the pot, then you can call. If not, then you should fold. You SHOULD NOT use pot odds to talk yourself into marginal calls; rather you should use them to AVOID marginal calls.

The simplest way to calculate pot odds is by using the 4 times and 2 times rules. They state that on the flop your percentage chance of winning by the river is approx the number of outs times four. So if you have nine outs (flush draw), you have approx a 36 percent chance of winning. The four times rule can be off by a couple of percent, but the difference will rarely be enough to affect your decision. For instance the exact chance of catching one of your nine outs by the river is 35%. This is close enough and easy to calculate. The four times rule states your chance on the flop of winning by the river.

The two times rule gives you the chance of winning on the next card. Multiply your outs by two, and that's about your probability of being in the lead after one card only. If you have nine outs, that's about 18%.

One mistake that a lot of people make is that they use the 4 times rule when they should use the 2 times rule. If you are in late position and there is a raise and two callers before you and you call with QhJh, then if two low harts and an Ace come on the flop, and there is betting and a call before you then you need to use the two time rule rather than the four times rule. With action before you the odds that someone has at least a pair of aces is high, so it stands to reason that there will be further betting on the turn card and you will need to recalculate your pot odds again. Because of this you need to calculate your pot odds and implied odds of hitting your flush based on the turn card if you feel that further betting will occur at that stage.

Using the 4 times and two time rule when calculating pot odds simplifies calculating pot odds and makes it a lot easier to ensure that you are always making the correct call, fold, or raise.